Here Comes Irene

I've decided to post a rare non-winter blog entry because of the impending hurricane here on the East Coast.  As usual, the post will be more concerned with effects in the DC area since that's where I live.

Irene is currently a Category 2 hurricane.  She has weakened a bit in the last day or so and has maximum sustained winds of 100 MPH placing it just inside Category 2 status (which begins at 96 MPH).  The intensity will likely not change significantly before landfall in extreme eastern North Carolina - probably in the vicinity of Cape Lookout tomorrow morning.

Two things to remember:

• This storm is large.  So is the extent of the rain and wind fields.  For this reason, its projected path offshore is still close enough to the coast to cause problems for us.
• However, the cut-off between significant rain and just a few showers is usually pretty sharp with hurricanes passing to our east.  If the storm follows the current forecast track, I'd guess that we'll get significant rain in the DC area - especially south and east of the city.

If this type of forecast sounds familiar it's because a hurricane's impact pattern is similar to the large snowstorms we get in the winter.  Track means a lot - although exactly where the center travels matters less...especially with a storm this large.  That's why the National Hurricane Center cautions people to concentrate less on the line that marks center track and just heed the warnings they issue.

Speaking of which...

We're under a Tropical Storm Warning here in the DC area - mostly for areas near water but including the following counties:

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...HARFORD...
MONTGOMERY...HOWARD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE
ARUNDEL...CHARLES...CALVERT...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS
PARK...FAIRFAX...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...STAFFORD...

SPOTSYLVANIA AND KING GEORGE.

And in St. Mary's county, the Tropical Storm Warning is now a Hurricane Warning.

So what should we expect?

The storm is likely to move fairly far off the coast so I expect the worst conditions on the Eastern Shore. 

Probably 6 inches of rain and winds gusting to 80+ there at times tomorrow.

Here, things start going downhill late tonight.  The first bands from Irene could arrive tomorrow morning

and the winds will be increasing all day.  Expect winds in the 20-30 MPH range by tomorrow afternoon,

increasing to 30-40 with higher gusts tomorrow night.  The worst should be tomorrow evening and 

overnight as the storm passes by to our east. 

Again, the cutoff for precipitation is expected to be fairly sharp.  I'd guess areas around I-95 could pick

up 1-3 inches of rain, more to the east, less to the west.  Places out in the Blue Ridge might just have a 

cloudy day.

This is a storm to take seriously but in DC, I also don't see the need to go out and buy all the bottled water

you can find.  Flooding is possible, power outages are probable and 50 MPH winds with saturated ground 

can make trees a problem.

The next official advisory from the National Hurricane Center comes out at 5 PM.

For now, here's an excellent graphic with the forecast storm track:

Boston Globe Irene Tracker