South south south.

As you probably know by now given the forecast trends, the storm track has continued to shift south bringing less and less snow and less cold air to our region.

What looked like a bullseye 3 days ago has become another disappointment in this unusual winter.

I expect to see some snow later this afternoon and evening but certainly no important accumulations.

Guess we would have been better off asking the first model what was going to happen rather than depending on the GFS.

With the further-south track also comes less cold air so any precipitation will likely start as rain and change to snow.

The Return

Both of me, and possibly of SNOW!

I've been conspicuously absent from this blog since, well, August when Irene came along and flooded everything.  Actually, it was Lee that flooded everything but Irene didn't help.

In any case, there hasn't been much to blog about this winter - certainly no one wants to read a blog about the 1/2 inch of snow that's likely to fall on any given day.

But this weekend looks like the first (last?) real chance at a real snowstorm.  If it happens, and the models hold, it looks like we might be in the bullseye for this one which makes it fun, too.  At least it gives me something to write about.

Let's start where we always do:  the models.

Sorry.

The GFS at 57 hours (10 PM Saturday night) shows a pretty good storm organizing in the southeast US.  Note the blue line indicating the freezing point for this particular part of the atmosphere.  We want to be north of that line and at this hour, we're right on it.  That's a good thing.

Also a good thing?  That high pressure area in the Great Lakes that will be moving east and bringing cold air to our area which should make for fewer precipitation issues (snow vs. rain vs. sleet).

By 66 hours, the storm is really getting wound up.  It's phasing (or phased) with northern stream energy from the jet stream and is beginning the turn up the coast.  Notice that we're in the freezing zone by this point.  It's too early to tell how the precipitation will start, but if these model forecasts hold, the major portion of it should be snow.

At 75 hours, early afternoon on Sunday, the main event should be in full swing around here.  This shows moderate to heavy precipitation in our area and that we're well to the north of the freezing line.  The potential for significant accumulating snow exists.  But the storm track means everything and we're still more than 3 days from this model time.

At 78 hours, late afternoon Sunday, we're still in the thick of it.  The storm looks to slide off the coast, right along the freezing line so this likely means not much for our Northeast neighbors but a possible bullseye for us.

By Sunday night the storm is moving away, precipitation ends from west to east and our storm is done. 

Of course, the question is "how much?"

For now, I think the concentration should be on whether the models hold for another day.  If these runs don't change much and the other models fall into line, this looks like the real deal.  The ECMWF has been flip-flopping between a more southerly track and a more northerly track.  The southern solution means less precipitation for us so this all bears watching.

For now - the probability exists, I'd say better than 50%, for a significant snowstorm with 3+ inch accumulations starting late Saturday night and ending Sunday night. The possibility for more exists of course but this is the highest probability range for now.

Just for fun:  the GFS "clown" map:

which shows us just outside of the 4-6 inch range or so.  These aren't all that accurate this far out except to show the path and pattern of the snowfall.

Stay tuned.