Storm on Track for Landfall

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Based on the models I've seen in the last few hours, I think their track might be a touch too far south.  The location of landfall isn't significant when you talk about whether or not we'll see any effects (we will) but it does have an impact on how extreme the effects could be.

For us, the size of the storm pretty much guarantees we will experience the expected effects:  rain and wind.  I think the weather starts deteriorating tomorrow afternoon with rain spreading in from the southeast.  The winds will be picking up too.  Expect sustained winds tomorrow night around 20-25 mph.

Monday is the most unpleasant day of the next three - especially as the day wears on.  Expect the wind to continue increasing through Monday afternoon and evening.  By Monday night we could see sustained winds around 40 mph with gusts over 50.  On the present track. the rain would fall heavily and fairly steadily throughout Monday.

By Tuesday things should start winding down but I think it stays windy until later in the week.  Rain is still possible on Tuesday - especially for the first half of the day. 

The big concerns for our area are:

1. Flooding.  We could see 5 or more inches of rain over the next three days.  Especially if the strike is south of the projections.  

2. Wind damage.  There are two factors to consider.  The first is that the winds will be quite strong for an extended period of time - maybe as much as 12 hours of tropical storm-force winds (40 mph+).  It is unusual - especially for this area - to experience a wind event like this one.  The second factor is that the ground will be extremely saturated during the period of strongest winds.  There will be tree-related damage.  Power outages are almost certain.

GFS-forecast wind gusts for Tuesday morning.  Our area is just south of the 70 mph zone indicating possible gusts in the   60-65 mph range for Monday night / Tuesday morning.

Much like winter storms - this will soon be down to small-scale forecasting.  Predicting where exactly the heaviest rain will fall and where the strongest winds will blow is very difficult.  So it makes sense to be prepared for the worst and hope we get something better.


Make no mistake, these models show a virtually unprecedented situation for this extended region over the next three days.  In a central-New Jersey strike scenario, New York City would see at least 5 feet of storm surge as winds and high-tide combine. 

Keep an eye on the conditions, use good sense, stay home on Monday if you can and treat the conditions with respect.  Be safe.

I'll post an update later today.