Worrisome Trend?

The GFS has been trending further and further northwest with each run.  This was an "ok" trend at first because it brought the heaviest core of precipitation northward towards us.  However, it's starting to become a touch uncomfortable because a northern track is also a warmer track which we don't want. 

Temperatures for this event were going to be marginal anyway.

The official NWS call for the DC area is 2-4 inches east of I-95 and then a fairly tight gradient of about 6-8 inches just west of DC to over a foot for the western suburbs.

We need to keep a southern component to the track or we'll definitely have precipitation type issues.

Most March storms are like this but the snowfall forecasts are too close for comfort:

I should note that the GFS has the furthest northward track of any model and has been leading the northward charge for the last few cycles.  In fact, the Euro - which is considered a better model - insists on a more southerly track.  The disparity between the models - especially after the storm gets off the coast - is quite remarkable at this timeframe and highlights the complexity of the atmosphere and the interactions between pressure systems.

All I can say is "stay tuned".  Snow still seems likely but we're getting close - too close - to having rain mixing problems, especially near the city itself.