Model Runs Trending a Bit Colder - Still a Mess of a Forecast for DC Area

As Paul pointed out in his comment on my last post, the models have been trending colder overall with this storm - especially with regards to the depth of the cold air and the time it will take the warm air to erode the dome.

Other forecast elements still in place:  high pressure funnels cold air southward starting Friday night.  Saturday will be noticeably colder.  The cold air is in place as warmer air starts to overrun early Sunday morning.

At this point, it looks like a shot of snow followed by sleet, possibly significant freezing rain before changing to all rain late Sunday night into Monday.

There are still a lot of questions about timing and how much front-end precipitation will fall but it seems somewhat more likely today that frozen precipitation will fall on Sunday and we could have some icing problems before things changeover to rain.

Here's this morning's Euro snowfall forecast:

which still suggests a few inches of snow for the DC area.

More models are coming in - I'll post later today.