More Questions Than Answers

The NAM says "no snow".  The Euro says "no snow".  The GFS and several short-term models insist on at least 2 inches of snow for the DC area.

At this point, there are more forecast questions than answers.

The official NWS forecast still calls for a storm with snow totals ranging from 2-6 inches across DC and points south.  The snow numbers increase as you go further south with the "bullseye" across central and southwest Virginia.  Locations to the north of DC are unlikely to see much, if any, snow at all if the current storm track holds.

As a forecaster, I would like to have more consensus from the models by now.  I'd also like to NOT be right in the middle of the gradient of snow amounts - which means very small deviations in track could affect the outcome.  To add complexity to an already-complex situation, small-scale events and "banding" could create localized areas of heavier snowfall just about anywhere from DC south.

Here is the Hydrometerological Prediction Center forecast map which shows the probability of seeing more than one inch of snow tomorrow until early evening.  This is from a branch of NOAA which means they have considered all available model data from this evening when making this forecast:

You can see that the DC area is in the 60-70% range to see at least an inch of snow accumulation.

Change that to a parameter of at least 4 inches and the map changes dramatically:

This forecast has us in a very low probability - 5-10%.

Now this only applies until tomorrow early evening.  If some of the models pan out, the snow could continue into the nighttime hours and more accumulation is possible.  But based on this, I think a conservative forecast is in order with the usual caveats about storm track.  Any shift to the north, and this becomes a bigger deal.  Any shift to the south and we could be talking about another miss.

For now, I'll say 1-3 inches in the DC area, 2-4 points south of DC. 

More model data is coming in and if there's any substantive change, I'll be sure to post it.

Those of you who love snow:  hope for a northward shift which would get us in the "good stuff".