The bread. Go get it.

 The model runs last night were good, if you like snow.

Nothing has changed about the reasoning behind the forecast and the differences in the models were mostly regarding precipitation onset, duration and any mixing issues to the south and east of the city.

Every model I reviewed last night predicts at least a foot.  15-20 inches seem a good bet at this point, a few models have totals near 2.5 feet.

It's going to snow.

So what could go wrong at this point?

I'm not sure, actually.  Yesterday there was a southward trend to the modeled storm track but that stopped in last night's runs and now that the energy being sampled is actually in North America (as opposed to over the ocean), the models become more and more accurate.

The GFS is by far the most bullish on the snow situation.  It stalls the low just off the coast for almost 12 hours and just pours down snow in our area.  If this verifies - and it's not out of the question - we're talking 2-3 feet, not 1-2 feet.

Here's the "clown map" (it's what it's informally called) so you can see:



Still in the bullseye.  A closer look shows that the GFS models around 3 feet of snow for the area.  This pattern of "stall off the coast for 12 hours" has been consistent in the GFS but is not shown in the other models for quite the same duration.  As a result, this is considered a bit of an "outlier" solution...it shouldn't be discounted but it maybe should be taken as a "worst-best-case scenario".



The CMC isn't a model I usually trust and until the last few runs it had one of the most northeast tracks of the models.  And yet:




That's well over 2 feet for our area and much of the northwestern part of Virginia and almost all of Maryland.

Here's a map of precipitation potential for the storm.  This is in liquid precipitation so remember that to get an approximate amount of snow from liquid measure you multiply by 10.




This model suggests 3-4 inches of liquid for the storm - again, the bullseye is in line with the other models and is right over us.  If this verifies, well...you can do the math :)

There has been some talk of analogs to this storm and the one I've heard most is the Blizzard of '96.  Every storm is different as are the ingredients that make up the conditions around the storms.  Yet, it's worth showing the snowfall map from that storm:




There are some parallels to that situation and this could be a storm of similar (or greater) proportions.

Finally, this is the Euro from early this morning.  The Euro had consistently been the most southern track which moved the highest snow totals to Central Virginia.  Even in this run, we are hit hard:



The models are called "guidance" for a reason.  Meteorologists are supposed to use them - and their skill - to make a prediction.  When all of the models mostly agree it's a reason to sit up and take notice.  When all of them - without exception - show double-digit snowfall potential for an area, it's time to get the bread.

Why are you still reading?  Go get bread!