Forecast Pretty Much on Track - Rain Coming, Then Snow

So after a night when the data showed some uncertainty to final snow totals for today, it seems that the general idea of the forecast is holding pretty well.

This morning, many of us have a coating of slushy snow on the ground thanks to an early-morning burst that has changed in some spots to sleet and in most spots to rain or drizzle.  Expect this to continue for a while - probably with a total changeover to rain before the atmosphere begins to cool.

By the afternoon the reverse of the morning change begins.  Rain and sleet will change to snow from west to east and should start falling with intensity - especially as the afternoon goes on.  By rush hour, travel conditions could be pretty bad both with heavy snow falling and accumulations.

With the thermal profiles in the atmosphere and a changeover-based forecast, location is going to be everything in this storm.  As an example: the National Weather Service has Washington, DC under a Winter Storm Warning for 3-6 inches of snow but has Arlington County in a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4 inches of snow.

But I expect some of these totals could change as the day goes on - especially once the snow starts seriously falling later this afternoon.

As far as timing:  it looks like the changeover will start during the mid-afternoon hours - I'd guess around 2 PM.  The main thrust of the storm should hit our area from around that hour until about 8 or 9 tonight.