Washington DC and points north and west are now under a Winter Storm Watch for tomorrow night through Thursday morning. I imagine the rest of us will be under some kind of advisory eventually as well.
Latest models in with 4+ inches for our area - the average forecast is 6 and the extremes are 2-3" on the low side to over 10 on the high side. I think 4-6 is a good first call.
The time of the changeover is crucial. Looks like "early evening" for us here and if so, there will still be plenty of energy and moisture to work with. Because of the preceding slop (rain/snow/sleet) we will probably lose a couple of inches to melting (snow doesn't stick to water) but the snow could fall rather heavily tomorrow night into the early hours of Thursday morning.
Still a lot of data to ponder. Thermal profiles are still borderline and any little shift in track or timing could change the whole thing - one way or the other.
For now - a bit of snow in the morning, a bit of slop in the afternoon and some significant snow tomorrow night seems to be the trend.
Still watching the data come in - more to come.
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