WINTER STORM WARNING

 

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Tuesday - Wednesday

Tracking another storm system as it moves across the country, slides through the Southeast and then just off the Carolina coast on Tuesday night - Wednesday morning.

This one definitely bears watching although current model forecasts are for it to pass just to our south.

Here is the 84-hour GFS which is the forecast for Wednesday morning:


You can see the storm off the North Carolina coast.  It moves essentially NE from here in later frames.

The storm is tossing back around 0.10-0.25 of precipitation - which is light: 1-3 inches of snow or so.

Two reasons this storm bears watching.

First:  it's strong.  A 989 mb low is fairly intense.

Second: this season, almost every storm this season has trended north and west from its position in model runs this far out.

If it moves more to the north and the west, this could be a big deal.  For now, some snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning seems likely - but light amounts also seem likely.

Don't cancel any plans - but stay tuned...

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Winter Precipitation Processes - Part 1: Pressure

I thought, while we have a break, that I would post a bit about the science of meteorology - especially as it pertains to the types of precipitation we see in the winter.  Perhaps you have wondered why sometimes what falls from the sky is rain, sometimes sleet, sometimes snow.  Maybe you've seen the nature of the snow that is falling change from tiny fluffy flakes (bad for snowballs) to wet, large flakes (great for snowballs) and wondered why that's happening.

And, maybe you don't care.  If that's the case, I'd stop reading here.

But for the curious, let's talk for a moment about pressure.  Hopefully at the end of this series, you'll start to see how this ties in to some of those forecast model maps I've posted in the past month or so.

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE AND UNITS

What is atmospheric pressure?  Simply: it's the weight of the air in the column above any given point.

This can be measured in all sorts of ways.  In the old days, somebody figured out that if you have put a pool of mercury into a reservoir and the reservoir extended upwards into a vacuum tube, you could measure how "heavy" the air above the mercury reservoir was by observing how high the mercury was forced up the tube.


For lack of anything better, this deflection was measured in inches - which is why you hear, even today, people referring to atmospheric pressure in "inches of mercury".  Crazy and archaic, no?

Meteorologists switched to the metric (really, the "SI" - " le Système international d'unités" - or International Standard) system of units for a lot of things a long time ago.  Atmospheric pressure is no exception.

The SI unit  for pressure is a "Pascal".  Sea level pressure is typically in the neighborhood of 100 kilopascals.  Like other metric units, the prefix "kilo-" means "1000".  So, we can say that sea level pressure is typically 100 X 1000 pascals.  Or 100,000 pascals.

In the early 1900's, some dude named William Napier Shaw decided that nobody wanted to deal with a unit of measurement where the base value was going to be so high.  Cleverly, he created a substitute unit called a bar.  Since he was British, it's unlikely this has anything to do with him having a pint at the time he came up with it.  Otherwise, we'd be walking around with pressure units called "pubs".  But I digress...

A bar is equal to 100 kilopascals or, conveniently, typical sea level pressure.

Pressure decreases as you go higher into the atmosphere.  Simple enough: there's less air between you and the top of the atmosphere (where air eventually runs out and the vacuum of space approaches), therefore the air column weighs less, therefore the pressure is lower.

Because so much of our weather is defined by what happens in the atmosphere, meteorologists knew they would have to use a fractional version of the bar to still be able to have manageable values as they spoke of different pressures in the atmosphere.  So, they settled on the millibar as the unit of pressure measurement.  The prefix "milli-" means  1/1000 for SI units.  So, a millibar (abbreviated "mb") is 1/1000 of a bar and that, in turn, means that 1000 millibars is the same as 1 bar - or typical surface pressure.

Anytime you see pressure measurements on a forecast model map, they will always be in millibars.  Some TV meteorologists have even started to introduce this standard to their audiences (although you'll still always see the pressure given in "inches of mercury").



CONSTANT PRESSURE SURFACES

Pressure is very important to what mets call the "sensible weather" - or the weather that you experience outside while walking down the street.  In meteorology, we have defined what are called "constant pressure surfaces" as a way of understanding and modeling atmospheric processes that cause our weather.

Imagine, for a moment, an "idealized" or "perfect" atmosphere.  This mythic world is one where the pressure at sea level is 1010 millibars (mb) and pressure decreases in a way that is perfectly proportional to how high you are in the atmosphere.

Now, let's say you are hooked onto a big balloon and you go straight up into the atmosphere.  You're armed with a notepad and pencil, thermometer, a barometer, an altimeter (tells you how high up you are) and, hopefully, a parachute.  Here's what you're asked to do by a meteorologist:

- "When your barometer reads 1000 mb, take a measurement of altitude and temperature".

- "Take the same measurements when your barometer reads:  850 mb, 700 mb, 500 mb, 250 mb and, if you can, 100 mb" (we'll assume, in the mythic world that we're discussing, that you don't need air to breathe and that you're impervious to cold).

Shortly after takeoff, your barometer reads 1000 mb. You take a measurement of 100 meters (300 feet) and a temperature of 15 C (59 F).

As you rise into the atmosphere on your balloon, you find that your barometer reads 850 mb at about 1500 meters (5000 feet) and that it's getting cold, about 5 C (41 F).

Up you go.  The barometer reads 700 mb and you take a measurement:  3000 meters (10000 feet) and -5 C (23 F)

You continue taking measurements at the pressure markers the meteorologist mentioned.  As you do, you notice that your balloon is getting larger and larger.  Why?  The pressure in the balloon has remained constant from sea level.  But the pressure outside of the balloon is getting lower and lower.  So the balloon is expanding outward.  A short time after your barometer measures 100 mb and you take your measurements, your balloon pops.  You release your parachute, fall gently to the surface and hand the meteorologist your pad which shows something like this:


PRESSURE (mb) APPROXIMATE ALTITUDE TEMPERATURE
1000 100 meters (300 feet) 15 C (59 F)
850 1500 meters (5000 feet) 5 C (41 F)
700 3000 meters (10000 feet) -5 C (23F)
500 5000 meters (18000 feet) -20 C (-4 F)
300 9000 meters (30000 feet) -45 C (-49 F)
200 12000 meters (40000 feet) -55 C (-67 F)
100 16000 meters (53000 feet) -56 C (-69 F)


Meteorologists think of the atmosphere as a series of constant pressure levels.  In a perfect atmosphere, these would be standardized, i.e. your barometer would always read 850 mb at 5000 feet.

But in the real world, that's not true.  And it's the difference in the height of those pressure levels, the amount of space between the pressure levels (referred to as "thickness") and the temperatures that make a difference.

For the purposes of winter precipitation, we'll concern ourselves with pressures from the surface up to 500 mb.

Next post: how the heights and thicknesses change and what that means for us on the ground.

Oh - and guess what?  In my little example above, you were essentially a weather balloon.  These are released by National Weather Service upper air stations (Dulles/Sterling is our closest one) twice a day (morning and evening) and record the information from the example as well as other information (dewpoint, winds, etc) on their way up.  More about this in the next post, too!

Looks Like the Models Were Right...the First Time

The storm formed as expected, it snowed for a few hours after about 2 AM this morning and then dry air raced in behind and stopped the precipitation.

With the proximity of the storm, it still looks like on-and-off snow showers are possible - especially later tonight as the storm strengthens and retrogrades.

But the winds will be the principal focus.

This one was mostly a miss.  Just to our north in Pennsylvania it's snowing this morning and will likely keep doing so - especially further north into the NYC area.

Let's see how far this thing comes back to the south as it gets stuck later today.

For now:  sunshine!  (where's my smiling sunshine graphic with sunglasses?)

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Downgraded to WWA - But Keep an Eye

So the NWS downgraded our Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon, and I agree.

The models came west with the storm but the trend seems to have stopped for now.  This will be a glancing blow for our area with the potential for 2-4 inches of snow with the 2-inch amounts in the DC area south and slightly more as you go north.

Just to clarify:

By NWS definition at this time of year, a "Winter Storm Watch (or Warning)" is defined as either the potential for at least 5 inches of snow in a 12-hour period or 7 inches of snow in a 24-hour period.

A Winter Weather Advisory is for less than 4 inches of snow.

This remains a complicated forecast - even here on the brink of the storm arrival in the DC area.  A slight jog to the west - and I mean slight...perhaps 30 miles or fewer - and it changes forecast snow totals a great deal.

Also - even though the atmospheric temperatures support snow, it's likely that at least initially, surface temperatures will be too warm for it to stick.  So we'll be "wasting" some of the snow to melting.

Finally, sometime tomorrow the flow in the atmosphere will grind to a halt and the storm will slow down dramatically - maybe even retrograde (a process where the storm actually heads back south and west instead of north and east as the typical flow would suggest).

As this happens, the storm will send QPF back over the Mid Atlantic and the northeast.  How close?  Do we get those bands of snow tomorrow evening and overnight?  If so, then I can see the DC area getting closer to that 4-inch mark.  If not, then 2 inches sounds more believable.

Will be watching the models to see how this plays out in the runs tonight.

It's Gonna Be Close

So most all of the models shifted westward overnight with the storm track.  However, that doesn't even remotely mean they all agree on the storm track.

Most have the track still fairly far off the coast.  It makes this a complicated forecast because the cutoff line for significant and light snow (or what the NWS would call "warning-level" and "advisory-level" snow) will be very close to our area.

A slight shift in track eastward means less snow for us.  A little further westward places us "safely" in the warning-level snow.

I need to see the model runs from this morning.

For now, expect the precipitation to start tonight, probably as a period of rain or mixed rain and snow.  Eventually this will change over to all snow.

This will be a powerful storm once it's done strengthening over the Atlantic.  So whether it snows 5 inches or 2 inches, it will be windy tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Later Models Holding to the Westward Shift

The NAM still is significantly further offshore than the GFS in terms of storm track - but it, too, has come west from its earlier position.

This lends more credence to the 3-5 inch accumulation amounts forecast by the GFS earlier today.

Still watching...

It's Bigger...Possibly

Very difficult forecast situation developing for Wednesday - Thursday.

A low pressure system forming off the coast on Wednesday was forecast by most models to just brush the area with light precipitation before moving out to sea.  Run after run of the models had confirmed this situation.

Until this morning.

This morning's run of the GFS shows a sudden shift to the west with the storm track, closer to the coast and in a position to bring us more snow than originally thought.

There is likely to be a very sharp cutoff to the areas receiving significant snow and "not much" snow.  For now, we're in a zone where 4 inches are possible, more to our north and east.

It's very important that successive model runs stay with this idea and not to gravitate to one particular run.  However, it is a fairly marked change from previous runs and will have to be watched closely.

Here's the NAM total precip forecast.  When looking at this consider:  the GFS is even further west with the track than the NAM which slides all of this further onshore here in the Mid Atlantic:


Note how close the blue is...just in northeastern Maryland.  This particular run of the NAM also absolutely crushes NYC.  We'll see.

I'll keep you up-to-date as the new model runs come in.

For now, there's a chance of significant snow in our area Wednesday night through Thursday.