It's Bigger...Possibly

Very difficult forecast situation developing for Wednesday - Thursday.

A low pressure system forming off the coast on Wednesday was forecast by most models to just brush the area with light precipitation before moving out to sea.  Run after run of the models had confirmed this situation.

Until this morning.

This morning's run of the GFS shows a sudden shift to the west with the storm track, closer to the coast and in a position to bring us more snow than originally thought.

There is likely to be a very sharp cutoff to the areas receiving significant snow and "not much" snow.  For now, we're in a zone where 4 inches are possible, more to our north and east.

It's very important that successive model runs stay with this idea and not to gravitate to one particular run.  However, it is a fairly marked change from previous runs and will have to be watched closely.

Here's the NAM total precip forecast.  When looking at this consider:  the GFS is even further west with the track than the NAM which slides all of this further onshore here in the Mid Atlantic:

Note how close the blue is...just in northeastern Maryland.  This particular run of the NAM also absolutely crushes NYC.  We'll see.

I'll keep you up-to-date as the new model runs come in.

For now, there's a chance of significant snow in our area Wednesday night through Thursday.