Downgraded to WWA - But Keep an Eye

So the NWS downgraded our Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon, and I agree.

The models came west with the storm but the trend seems to have stopped for now.  This will be a glancing blow for our area with the potential for 2-4 inches of snow with the 2-inch amounts in the DC area south and slightly more as you go north.

Just to clarify:

By NWS definition at this time of year, a "Winter Storm Watch (or Warning)" is defined as either the potential for at least 5 inches of snow in a 12-hour period or 7 inches of snow in a 24-hour period.

A Winter Weather Advisory is for less than 4 inches of snow.

This remains a complicated forecast - even here on the brink of the storm arrival in the DC area.  A slight jog to the west - and I mean slight...perhaps 30 miles or fewer - and it changes forecast snow totals a great deal.

Also - even though the atmospheric temperatures support snow, it's likely that at least initially, surface temperatures will be too warm for it to stick.  So we'll be "wasting" some of the snow to melting.

Finally, sometime tomorrow the flow in the atmosphere will grind to a halt and the storm will slow down dramatically - maybe even retrograde (a process where the storm actually heads back south and west instead of north and east as the typical flow would suggest).

As this happens, the storm will send QPF back over the Mid Atlantic and the northeast.  How close?  Do we get those bands of snow tomorrow evening and overnight?  If so, then I can see the DC area getting closer to that 4-inch mark.  If not, then 2 inches sounds more believable.

Will be watching the models to see how this plays out in the runs tonight.