A Miss After All

This has been one of the most difficult storms to forecast that I can remember. As meteorologists, I think this serves as a reminder that even in this age of advanced technology: powerful computers, advanced radar - the atmospheric system is incredibly complex. Sometimes these kinds of weather patterns are going to occur and there isn't a hell of a lot we can do but make a good guess.

Forecasts are still all over the place but just as I was typing this, the National Weather Service dropped the Winter Storm Warning for the immediate DC area and reduced our snow forecast to around an inch. Further east there's still a chance for more significant snow but the real show will be from Philadelphia northward along I-95 to Boston and beyond. Up in New England they will have the chance for more than a foot.

Here - some light snow I think. Short-term models haven't given up on the idea of some snow falling but it doesn't look like it will amount to much.

What a crazy ride it's been with this storm.

Keep an Eye on This One

We're under a Winter Storm Watch and it's likely to be upgraded to a warning once the 12Z guidance comes in.  Models still in remarkable disagreement given how close we are to the event.  5 inches seem possible here in DC - maybe more if the storm continues to trend westward - maybe much more if a serious track change happens.

I won't be able to check the modes as regularly today but I'd say it's likely that it will snow tomorrow - at least 4 inches maybe more.  Have to keep an eye on that track.

Merry Christmas!

GFS Won't Give Up

I've been reduced to a spectator.  I can't remember a case where the models had so much flip-flopping and disagreement this close to an event.  There have been plenty of times when the models have all agreed and turned out to have been smoking the same hallucinogenic drug.  But this is insane.

Several afternoon models (including some of the near-term models like the RUC - usually disregarded except inside of 40 hours to the event) are leaning towards the GFS solution.

Which looks like this:

That's many things (crazy is one of them) but what it's not is "no snow".

The 0Z runs tonight (which don't come out until like 1:30 AM) are going to be crucial.  In any case, I still think this is a Sunday-Monday issue so it shouldn't create any serious disruptions on Christmas Day except for in the South.

Will try and check the models later tonight.  Merry Christmas everyone.

12Z Euro Still Out to Sea

So the Euro didn't come around to the GFS solution. With so many models agreeing on an out-to-sea scenario and the GFS now the only true outlier, have to go with consensus right now and stick to the no-major-storm scenario for the mid-Atlantic. 

Still watching other models and available information.

...right up Until the 12Z GFS. I need an Excedrin.

Yeah, remember that out-to-sea thing I posted about like, what, an hour and a half ago?

The GFS comes out west of its last track making the miss out to sea more of a "brush" and keeping the game alive.  This is akin to watching your favorite team down 21 with 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter, turning off the TV because you figure it's over and then having them tie it up with seconds left in the game.

Will the GFS win (i.e. - will the other models also shift towards us?)...I'll see what the afternoon models show.

Here's the 12Z GFS run:

Models Agree: Out to Sea

Will be watching this closely.  The miss is about 100 miles - not more than that.  But for now, the threat of a major winter storm for the mid-Atlantic has subsided.  There will be snow in the south - maybe from Atlanta through eastern North Carolina which is fun for Christmas.  And there's the chance for a major storm for eastern New England.  But, it looks like this will miss us in the mid-Atlantic out to sea.

The morning model runs have the suggestion of a change again...but I'm not sure it will be close enough to matter a lot for us.

As the first wave passes, the phase happens too late.  Even so, the first wave could give us a bit of light snow Christmas Day afternoon and evening.

I'll be watching the afternoon runs to make sure there are no surprises.

Models Flip Flopping Again

Quick update this morning:  if you like snow, the morning models are not for you.  It's still basically the Euro vs. the GFS but the GFS has gone back to its WAY out-to-sea forecast in which only eastern Maine is really affected.  The Euro still has the storm but even it is a little further east than in previous runs.

It's not a good idea to latch onto any one of the model runs - good or bad.  I'll be looking for some run-to-run consistency before making a call.  Hopefully that comes before Saturday.

Right now - some snow is still probable but the megastorm that was in the Euro yesterday seems less likely. 

Waiting for the evening runs of the models to see if this eastward shift continues.