I've been reduced to a spectator. I can't remember a case where the models had so much flip-flopping and disagreement this close to an event. There have been plenty of times when the models have all agreed and turned out to have been smoking the same hallucinogenic drug. But this is insane.
Several afternoon models (including some of the near-term models like the RUC - usually disregarded except inside of 40 hours to the event) are leaning towards the GFS solution.
Which looks like this:
That's many things (crazy is one of them) but what it's not is "no snow".
The 0Z runs tonight (which don't come out until like 1:30 AM) are going to be crucial. In any case, I still think this is a Sunday-Monday issue so it shouldn't create any serious disruptions on Christmas Day except for in the South.
Will try and check the models later tonight. Merry Christmas everyone.
WINTER STORM WARNING
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2010
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December
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- A Miss After All
- Keep an Eye on This One
- GFS Won't Give Up
- 12Z Euro Still Out to Sea
- ...right up Until the 12Z GFS. I need an Excedrin.
- Models Agree: Out to Sea
- Models Flip Flopping Again
- DC, Philly, NYC Would Disappear Beneath the Snow
- Christmas Storm Update and Teleconnections
- Christmas Storm Still on Track
- Some Snow Showers Tuesday, All Eyes on Christmas E...
- Evening Models Trending Snowier for the Weekend
- This is What I Mean
- Snow Falling Now, 1-3 inches, Models All Over the ...
- Thursday Snow More Likely, Weekend Snow Less Likely
- Two Shots at Snow: Thursday and Late Weekend
- Weekend Storm Likely to be Rain (Primarily) Then V...
- Outlook for Winter 2010 and a Storm (probably rain...
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