All of that lovely model agreement that was present a few days ago is gone. The models are back to their bickering with one camp (the GFS and its ensembles) preferring a no-phase, out-to-sea solution for the storm this weekend and the other camp (GGEM, Euro) pointing to a big coastal storm. In fact, the QPF (forecast precipitation amounts) in the Euro model have increased significantly for our area.
Overall, the models are slowing the storm both in onset and duration. This is significant for two reasons: the first is that it's likely any snow wouldn't begin until Christmas evening/night and the second is that a longer duration means greater moisture conveyance from the Atlantic Ocean which means more snow.
With the models divided between two storm track possibilities and even within the factions some in-fighting in regards to intensity and timing - it's far too early to pinpoint things precisely. I don't think I'll feel comfortable making a first call until Thursday.
The National Weather Service has no such luxury and they're sticking to their relatively-high probabilities of snow but they're also taking heed of the timing and have moved everything up about 12-16 hours.
So "stay tuned" is still the rule of this game.
I hope to make a longer post later tonight explaining the things I'm looking at as I try and interpret all of this model data and the potential for a major winter storm on Christmas Day into Sunday.
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