Some Snow Showers Tuesday, All Eyes on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day

So...the weekend storm formed as forecast but moved out to sea before we could see much more than a few clouds.  Not entirely surprising - a few models did call the storm properly back on Thursday but remember that we look for consensus from the models before making a forecast.  The consensus just wasn't there until Friday.

Right now, the meteorology world is buzzing about Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  This is the best chance for a true White Christmas (which I'd define as "significant snow" actually falling on Christmas Day) in quite some time.  The amazing thing is, in fact, the model consensus this far out.  We're some 120 hours away from the forecast start of the storm and this time many of the models are fairly close in their forecast of storm track.  It's actually a little unsettling to have this much agreement this far out - each successive run of the models simultaneously increases confidence and leaves you wondering if it can possibly last until the 24th.

But, we'll take it after the craziness of this past week.

For now, here's the GFS forecast total precipitation for Sunday, December 26.  This means all precipitation that falls from storms up to and including 12/25.

This shows our area pretty well within the 0.50-1.00 inch zone of liquid precipitation which, when you use the 10-to-1 rule of thumb leads to a forecast of 5-10 inches.  Based on the storm track and strength forecasts I've seen, this may be a bit conservative.

BUT.

It's 120 hours before any snow is going to fall.  A whole LOT of stuff could happen between now and then.  So I'll try to post a daily update as we go through the week.  For many of us, it's an exciting event on a major Holiday.  For some of us, it's a possible impediment to travel.

Stay tuned.  Right now, for reference, the National Weather Service has a 40% chance of snow Friday night and a 50% chance on Christmas Day.  Those are pretty high percentages for an event this far away.