Another Big Storm

So this one started out looking average and winds up looking pretty impressive.  Overall, this storm would be considered an unusually-strong winter storm for the DC area, except that we're kind of getting used to that now, aren't we?

Based on the model outputs and QPF's that are shown in the forecast, it seems like we're in line for at least a foot of snow from DC northward.  As a first call:

8-12 inches from about Fredericksburg north to DC
12-16 inches from DC to Baltimore and points west
16+ from Baltimore northward to Philly

The NWS is going slightly lower, some TV mets slightly higher.

There is a somewhat lower-than-normal confidence with this forecast because although the components are in place, the storm has yet to form.

But look for snow to spread across the area beginning in the early afternoon and increasing in intensity.  I think the majority of the snow will fall overnight tomorrow but we might have as much as 2-4 inches on the ground by nightfall tomorrow.

Mixed precipitation should not be an issue from DC northward but may be a factor south of DC - especially the further south you go.

I'm still going over model data so more posts to come.  Stay safe, everyone!