The Game is Still On

And I don't mean the Super Bowl.

The nighttime run of the GFS still holds on to the timing of the storm.  This is going to be a big deal for southern New England - from Philly to New York City.  They could get a storm much like the one that just hit us this past weekend.

But it won't be negligible for us - not if the timing and positioning continues the way it looks like it will.  Here's the GFS in hour 72 showing the total QPF over us for this storm:

This puts us between 0.75 and 1.00 inches of QPF.  To the GFS, that translates to the following snow forecast:

Overall, the models seem to show us in the 6-10 inch range with higher totals northward to Baltimore - where they could see another foot.

Unlike the previous storm where the energy could be tracked as it moved across the country, this storm won't even form until the phasing takes place.  So even though it's only a couple of days away, there's still a fair amount of uncertainty with this storm.  A slight shift to the south puts us in the heavier snow.  A shift to the north and we have less snow and more mixing issues (with sleet or rain).  And all of it depends on the timing of the jet stream phase.

*whew*

So - for now, it looks as though snow will start falling sometime in the second half of Tuesday - maybe late afternoon.  The heaviest snow will fall overnight and into the morning on Wednesday and then continue with decreasing intensity through Wednesday afternoon.

6-10 inches seems like a good forecast at this point.  And we are under a Winter Storm Watch which, for the NWS, means the risk of 5 or more inches of snow.

I'll be watching the forecast models...

Good night.