A Tough Little Storm

So this one will be a difficult forecast - hopefully things will begin to clear up later tonight or tomorrow.

For now we have this situation:

A low pressure system is coming south from Canada.  These little storms are sometimes referred to as "Alberta Clippers" sometimes as "Manitoba Maulers" depending on their point of origin.  Track is everything with these types of storms.  If it tracks further to the south of DC, we see all snow.  If it tracks further to the north, we run the risk of snow mixing with sleet or even rain.

Right now, the models have this tracking just barely south of the DC area.  So, as it so often turns out, I believe the further north and west of the big cities you go, the more the precipitation that falls will be all snow.

To complicate things, these storms are usually very dry as they are continental in origin.  This means that the storm's principle source of moisture (and, as it turns out, energy) will be the Atlantic Ocean.  How quickly it intensifies and how close we are to the low center will make the difference between a little snow and some good accumulations. 

This is not a similar scenario to the last two.  This is a small storm with the potential to drop about 3-5 inches on the DC metro.  Can these storms produce more snow?  Sure.  They have been known to produce 10-12 inches sometimes.  But, for now, it looks like our snow totals will be compromised some by mixing and some by the strength of the storm when it arrives.

I'll go with 3-5 inches for now.  More model runs are coming tonight which will hopefully lock on to the track.

It looks like it will snow, but not anything like what we've seen around here recently.